Climate change or climatecatastrophe?
"Climate Change" is a more comforting term than "Global Warming," as change implies both positive and negative effects.
the reality of climate change is marked by an increasing frequency of 'unimaginable' calamities.
Biblical floods, prolonged droughts, devastating hurricanes, unbearable humidity, raging wildfires, cold snaps, and rising sea levels are relentlessly battering households around the globe with unprecedented ferocity. Global warming is spiralling out of control, there seems to be no place left to escape.
According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the economic damage of climate change — excluding loss of life and biodiversity — could range from...
...where the lower end is comparable to the entire GDP of the EU in 2023. We are experiencing the unfolding drama of a rapidly accelerating climate catastrophe.
Thekeeling curve
For 800 thousand years, the CO2 (carbon dioxide) concentration in the atmosphere fluctuated in a narrow band between 200 and 300 ppm. By June 2024, in less than 250 years, it reached 427 ppm, 50% above the 1800’s pre-industrial level of 280 ppm.
The speed of this rise is staggering. CO2 might the most well-known
greenhouse gas (GHG), but there are others like CH4 (methane) and N2O
(nitrous oxide). These greenhouse gases (GHGs) share two key characteristics: (i) their
staggering rise in the last 250 years is due to our decision to burn fossil fuels for energy,
leading to the emission of massive amounts of GHGs and (ii) by trapping heat in the atmosphere,
GHGs are driving a swift rise in Earth's temperature.
Global warmingsdevastating impacts
Discover how rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and melting ice caps are all immediate threats with tangible effects on our planet and way of life.
Impact #01
Our planet is heating up at a dramatic rate
In 2024, we exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
for the first time, an outcome entirely driven by our dependence on fossil
fuels. If this trend continues, we are likely to see a 3.0°C rise by
2050.
Today’s greenhouse gas concentrations determine tomorrow’s climate: all climate
models agree that what constitutes a heat wave now will soon become the new normal.
In the near future, climate calamities will be frequent, fast and furious.
This
truly is a climate catastrophe.
Predicted and observed data on summer mean temperature across Europe by the Met Office Hadley Centre (2022). The red curves are individual runs of the model, the yellow curve is the average of these, and the black line is the observed summer temperatures in central Europe up to 2021. Graphic commissioned by the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG).
How this impacts the arctic
What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic
The arctic is warming faster than any other region...
However, heat is not spread equally over the planet. The
Arctic is heating up 3-4 times faster than the global average.
This "Arctic
amplification" is leading to devastating boreal wild fires and a rapid
disappearance of the Arctic ice cap.
Arctic sea ice is disappearing
The arctic sea ice functions as the 'Big
Refrigerator' for the global climate, with its vast white surface serving as
the 'Big Mirror' that reflects substantial amounts of sunlight – solar heat
- back into space.
Without the “Big Mirror”, that solar heat is absorbed by the Arctic Ocean
instead, gradually heating up the planet.
As the arctic sea ice has spiralled into oblivion, its disappearance poses
an existential threat for its inhabitants, flora, and fauna.
Critically, the
calamitous loss of this 'Big Refrigerator' and 'Big Mirror' accelerates Earth's
already rapid warming, exacerbating the severity of the global climate
catastrophe.
Impact #02
Our coastal cities are at risk of being submerged
The arctic Greenland ice cap also acts as a refrigerator and mirror. It too shows signs of accelerating melt-down.
Greenland's melt days are rising sharply, with melt fractions increasing by 40%-50% compared to the 1981-2010 median.
The arctic Greenland ice cap, however, is land-based. If it becomes unstable and
collapses into the sea, where it will melt, sea levels could rise by 7(!)
meters, engulfing most major coastal cities worldwide.
This is a climate catastrophe.
Impact #03
Our Oceans are heating up at a dramatic rate
Unsurprisingly, our oceans too are rapidly heating
up, particularly in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic (the La Niña
hot surface current off the coast of Peru is clearly visible on this 2023
snapshot).
Oceans are massive energy stores that become even more massive due to global
warming. Their heat provides the fuel for increasingly frequent and furious
hurricanes, typhoons, and more recently “medicanes” (Mediterranean hurricanes).
As oceans warm, invasive species move in, disrupting marine ecosystems.
For instance, the iconic but poisonous lionfish, a fierce coastal predator, has
infested the US east coast up to North Carolina, the Gulf of Mexico, the
Caribbean, and the eastern Mediterranean. It has now crossed the Amazon-Orinoco
river plume, a natural freshwater barrier that once separated Caribbean fish
species from those further south along Brazil’s coastline. It has no natural
enemies in these new territories.
Impact #04
Our oceans are acidifying at a dramatic rate
Ocean acidification is increasing due to the
absorption of CO2 by seawater (the lower the Ocean pH, the higher
the acidity).
On average, between 1982 and 2022, global ocean acidity increased by 18%
(source: ESA).
This combination of higher seawater temperature and
higher acidity will lead to the mass extinction of coral reefs by the time we
reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial level: 84.1% of the coral reef refugia will have dwindled to 0.2%, whilst 6.8% of the exposed coral reefs will have increased to 90.6%. Beyond their breathtaking beauty, coral
reefs serve as nurseries for nearly all marine life, except for jellyfish.
Without coral reefs, our oceans are at risk of “jellifying”.
This is a climate catastrophe.
Impact #05
Humidity becomes too hot to handle
Every degree of global warming creates a 7%
increase of water vapour in the air because warm air can contain more
moisture.
But, like heat, that increase in humidity will not be spread equally over
the planet. In fact, precipitation patterns are shifting.
On current trend, by 2100, the desertification of Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Basin is inevitable. On the other hand, regions around the Equator will become more humid.
Dots represent areas of the map where 90% of the models agree.
Heat and humidity interact in numerous deadly
ways.
A combination of 35°C with 80% humidity is extremely
dangerous to humans, as is a temperature of 40°C with 50% humidity. Vast
swathes of Brazil, Equatorial Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian
subcontinent, Southeast Asia and Australasia riskwill becominge
uninhabitable. In 2024, Dubai and New Delhi already flirted with extreme
“hot and humid” danger.
Shifting precipitation patterns and the combination of heat and
humidity are climate catastrophes.
Our climate has become erratic & violent
The additional heat stored in our atmosphere, land, oceans and melting ice caps due to greenhouse gases equates to the energy released by four Hiroshima bombs - per second! - for the past 25 years. As of the latest count, our climate has accumulated the equivalent of...
For more information, see https://4hiroshimas.info/
This formidable amount of stored energy, combined with increased water vapour in the air, underlies the erratic behaviour of our climate, leading to fast, furious and frequent calamities that threaten to engulf humanity before the end of the century.
ClimateRepair deal
Only a Climate Repair Deal – the 3Rs - can avoid the worst of climate change: Reduce GHG emissions, Remove GHGs from the atmosphere, Refreeze the Arctic.
CONTINUED FAILURE TO SATISFY THE 2015 PARIS-COP21 PLEDGES
Unfortunately, the current state of the Climate Repair Deal is disheartening. Efforts to reduce
and remove emissions have had minimal impact on our fossil fuel dependency, with greenhouse gas
emissions still reaching record levels - 50 gigatons annually - which is 50% higher than in 1990.
Climate Action Tracker denounces our failure to reduce GHG emissions – despite all the warnings
of the impending climate catastrophe - as an 'ambition gap’.
Tippingpoints
Today's GHG emissions shape tomorrow's climate, and they are at all-time
highs.
Some consequences, such as the loss of the Greenland ice cap and the extinction of
coral reefs, may be irreversible. They are called tipping points—critical thresholds
beyond which global warming spirals out of control, similar to a runaway nuclear
reaction. Tipping points represent the most frightening aspect of climate change.
Scientists have identified no less than 16(!) terrifying tipping points to date
(read more about Tipping Points in RAF’s Deep Dive into climate change).
16
... tipping points have been identified which could spell irreversible damage to the planet
Refreezebuys us time
By refreezing the Arctic, the fastest-warming region on Earth, we can restore its role as the planet's "Big Refrigerator" and "Big Mirror," cooling the climate and reflecting solar radiation.
Refreezing the Arctic could potentially reverse global warming temporarily, cooling the
planet by up to 1°C instead, helping to avoid the worst climate calamities. Crucially, it could keep
the terrifying tipping points at bay. Refreezing the Arctic might provide enough “breathing” time to
drastically reduce GHG emissions and initiate large-scale GHG removal efforts. By buying time,
refreezing the Arctic could save the Climate Repair Deal and protect humanity from the most severe
consequences of climate change.
We must act NOW.
Marine Cloud Brightening
We must slow down global warming
Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) offers a cost effective way to refreeze the Arctic and stabilize our climate. Check out our Solution page to learn how MCB may be our most promising tool to adapt to climate change, save the Climate Repair Deal and keep the terrifying tipping points at bay.